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Friends Without Benefits? - New EMU Members and the "Euro Effect" on Trade, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 83, pp. 75-92, May 2018 (joint with A. Mika).

We re-visit the evidence about the trade benefits of European Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on the experience of countries which adopted the common currency since 2002. Based on i) "state of the art" gravity estimations for the period 1992-2013, and ii) pseudo out-of-sample forecasts of trade flows for recent euro joiners, we conclude that candidate countries for euro accession should not expect euro membership to result in a significant boost to their trade.

Final WP version; CESifo WP 6308; ESE Focus Paper (non-technical)

Specialisation Patterns, GDP Correlations and External Balances, CESifo Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pp. 141-161, June 2017 (joint with A. Cuņat).

We provide evidence that countries with a similar intermediate-good content of exports tend to have more correlated GDP fluctuations and external balances. A stylised model - in which productivity shocks in a large country ("the U.S.") have a differential terms-of-trade effect on a fringe of smaller countries, and asset trade enables international risk sharing - can replicate these facts.

Final WP version; (prepared for the 2015 CESifo-Delphi conference on "Current Account Adjustments")

Factor Proportions and the Growth of World Trade, Journal of International Economics, vol. 95(1), pp. 42-53, January 2015.

Most of the expansion of global trade during the last three decades has been of the North-South kind - between capital-abundant developed and labour-abundant developing countries. I show that a calibrated factor-proportions model can account for 90% of the observed rise in North-South trade. This is due to the opening up of several large labour-abundant economies: China alone is responsible for three quarters of the model-predicted trade growth.

Final WP version; Longer post-Job-Market version

Banks' Liquidity Buffers and the Role of Liquidity Regulation, Journal of Financial Services Research, vol. 48(3), pp. 215-234, December 2015 (joint with C. Bonner and I. van Lelyveld).

Using balance sheet data for nearly 7,000 banks from 30 OECD countries over a ten-year period, we test whether the presence of liquidity regulation substitutes or complements banks' incentives to hold liquid assets. Our analysis reveals that liquidity rules complement the role of institutions' disclosure requirements, indicating a strong rationale for considering them jointly in the design of regulation.

Final WP version; VoxEU article (non-technical)

Sovereign Default, International Lending and Trade, IMF Economic Review, vol. 60(3), pp. 365-394, September 2012.

This paper shows that countries which default on their foreign debt see a stronger reduction in their exports in financially dependent industries than in sectors which are less financially vulnerable. Based on this finding, I argue that the "trade costs" of default documented in earlier studies may be a symptom of reduced access to international capital markets.

Final WP version; ESE Focus Paper (non-technical)


Review of "Europe Isn't Working" (L. Elliott and D. Atkinson), Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 55(1), pp. 227-229, March 2017.

Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson explain why EMU was never a progressive project. They do not explain what a "progressive" alternative to the euro might look like - or, at least, a more workable one. Their book is short on actual economics, long on relationship metaphors.

Final WP version